Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of Bitmex, has recently made predictions about significant Bitcoin volatility in the latter half of the year. Hayes believes that this volatility will be triggered by a “powder keg” explosion caused by the United States banking crisis and soaring national debt.



In a podcast interview, he shared his insights on the current economic outlook and the price of Bitcoin, offering a unique perspective on the potential future of the cryptocurrency market. In this article, we will explore Hayes’ predictions and their potential implications for Bitcoin.

Expectations for Bitcoin Price

Hayes anticipates that Bitcoin will not reach the $70,000 mark until 2024. He suggests that the cryptocurrency’s price will experience a blow-off top in 2025 or 2026, followed by a period of significant decline. Hayes attributes this anticipated volatility to the practice of quantitative easing and the broader social unrest resulting from the banking crisis and rising national debt. While he believes that this situation will ultimately benefit Bitcoin, he cautions that it could lead to substantial price fluctuations in both upward and downward directions.

Drivers of the Potential Crisis

The two primary drivers identified by Hayes are quantitative easing and the federal government’s issuance of trillions of dollars in debt. These factors create a potentially explosive situation that could unfold in the third or fourth quarter of the year. The resulting crisis could have a significant impact on the price of equities and cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. Hayes’ analysis suggests that the excessive money supply and the need for funding by the federal government contribute to the precarious economic environment.

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Insights from Other Analysts

While Hayes presents a cautionary outlook for Bitcoin’s price, other analysts have expressed more positive sentiments. Tommy Honan, the head of market analysis at crypto exchange Swyftx, suggests that a debt deal relief could reignite trader interest and trigger a significant price surge for Bitcoin. Additionally, JPMorgan strategists have noted that the current price of gold may imply a Bitcoin price of $45,000. However, they acknowledge potential constraints on Bitcoin’s upside due to regulatory crackdowns and reverberations from the FTX collapse.

Hayes’ Investment Strategies

In addition to his predictions, Hayes also shares insights into his personal investment strategies. He mentions his interest in staking Ether (ETH) and closely following the development of Bitcoin Ordinals. Furthermore, he reveals his investment in Pepe (PEPE), a meme-themed cryptocurrency that experienced a significant rally after its launch. While Hayes’ investment decisions are based on his personal preferences, they offer a glimpse into his assessment of the market and emerging trends.


Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes predicts significant Bitcoin volatility in the latter half of the year, attributing it to the United States banking crisis and soaring national debt. His cautionary outlook suggests that this volatility could impact the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While Hayes’ predictions provide a unique perspective, it’s important to consider the insights of other analysts and the broader market conditions. As with any investment, it’s crucial for individuals to conduct thorough research and exercise caution when navigating the cryptocurrency landscape.

This content is provided only for informative reasons and does not represent financial advice. Before making any financial transactions, users should undertake their own investigation.